Strong growth in production from unconventional sources of gas and oil will have a major impact on global energy markets to 2030, redefining expectations for major economies and rebalancing global trade flows, according to BP’s latest Energy Outlook 2030, published Wednesday.
Last year’s Outlook showed how North America is likely to become self-sufficient in energy. This year’s edition examines more closely the revolution in shale gas and tight oil, which is driving the American energy revival, including its global prospects.
The Outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase at an average of 1.6% a year to 2030. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2% a year to 2020 and then by only 1.3% a year to 2030. 93% of this growth will come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. By 2030, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 61% higher than in 2011 whereas use in the OECD will have grown by only 6%, and actually to have fallen in per capita terms.
While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26-28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – on a share of around 6-7% each.