"While on the face of it, refinery capacity additions look in line with projected demand growth over 2013 and 2014, in practice an increasing share of demand is being met by supplies bypassing the refining system," the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in the December Oil Market Report.
"As such, 2013 has seen simple margins plummet, and another round of refinery consolidation looks to be in the cards.
"In 2014, natural gas liquids (for the most part not processed at refineries) will grow by 550,000 bpd," the report said. "Biofuels will add another 60,000 bpd after expanding 120,000 bpd in 2013. Add in processing gains, and only 45% of projected demand will be sourced from refinery fuels."