12092016Fri
Last updateThu, 08 Dec 2016 6pm

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Poll: U.S. Economy to Grow 2.2% in 2017

National Association for Business Economics’ (NABE) December 2016 Outlook Survey forecasts 2.2% growth in real GDP for 2017. The annualized growth rate forecasted for 2017 inched downward to 2.2% in the current survey from 2.3% in September. Both projections illustrate the panel’s expectation of accelerating growth in 2017 compared with the median estimate of 1.8% year-to-year growth in 2016 Q4, and a 1.6% annual growth rate for 2016 as a whole. Relatively few panelists (8%) expect the next U.S. business cycle peak will occur before 2018. One-third of panelists forecasts a peak during 2018 with another one-third expecting a peak in 2019. 


U.S. Factory Orders Rose 2.7% in October

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up four consecutive months, increased $12.5 billion or 2.7% to $469.4 billion, the U.S. Department of Commerce reports. This followed a 0.6% September increase.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up four consecutive months, increased $10.6 billion or 4.6% to $238.8 billion, down from the previously published 4.8% increase. This followed a 0.3% September increase. 

ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Expands at Best Pace in Five Months

Manufacturing expanded in November as the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 53.2%, an increase of 1.3% from the October reading of 51.9%, indicating growth in manufacturing for the third consecutive month. A reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding. Eleven of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in November, led by miscellaneous, petroleum & coal products and paper products. 

U.S. Adds 178,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate at 4.6%

The unemployment rate declined 0.3% to 4.6% in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the Department of Labor reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.

Employment in construction continued on its recent upward trend in November (+19,000), with a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Over the past 3 months, construction has added 59,000 jobs, largely in residential construction. Employment in mining and manufacturing changed little over the month. 

Third Quarter GDP Revised Up to 3.2% Growth

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2016, according to the second estimate released by the Department of Commerce. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.

This new GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9%. With the second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger than previously estimated. 

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