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Industry and Regulatory Changes in Offshore Operations

Industry and Regulatory Changes in Offshore Operations

On May 13, 2016, the offshore oil and ga...

Strategies for Successful SIS Valve Diagnostic Implementation

Strategies for Successful SIS Valve Diagnostic Implementation

End users and contractors alike strive t...

Stop Check Valves

Stop Check Valves

Stop check valves are vital to several i...

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Industry Headlines

ValvTechnologies Names Garcia, Mermelstein to New Positions

4 DAYS AGO
ValvTechnologies Names Garcia, Mermelstein to New Positions

ValvTechnologies, Inc. has named David Garcia director of manufacturing and Steve Mermelstein as regional director, Americas and director, channel management.

Previously, West Point graduate Garcia served as director of operations for Merla Wellhead Solutions and held plant manager positions at Hallib...

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Emerson Automating UK Waste-to-Energy Plant

4 DAYS AGO

Emerson will provide control systems and project services for a new waste-to-energy power plant near Knaresborough Allerton, North Yorkshire, UK. Construction is expected to be completed in 2017, with the plant fully operational in 2018.

The plant , which will also incorporate biogas and recycling faci...

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U.S. Still Top Producer of Petroleum, Natural Gas Hydrocarbons

2 DAYS AGO

The U.S. remained the world's top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2015, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates . U.S. petroleum and natural gas production first surpassed Russia in 2012, and the U.S. has been the world's top producer of natural gas since 20...

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Why $50/Barrel Oil Means Stability to U.S. Producers

3 DAYS AGO

The rise to $50-per-barrel oil means a return to stability, particularly for domestic shale producers, according to Dan K. Eberhart, CEO, Canary, LLC. At this level , companies that saw the value of their product drop more than 75% in less than two years might have the confidence to resume drilling ac...

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Survey: Manufacturing Execs Investing in Advanced Tech

3 DAYS AGO

 A convergence of disruptive factors such as new technologies, increasing competition, and pricing pressures, is forcing manufacturers to increase investment in new products and services as they seek to innovate manufacturing capabilities, according to the 2016 KPMG Global Manufacturing Outlook ...

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Durable Goods Orders Surge 3.4%, But Demand Soft

3 DAYS AGO

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $7.7 billion or 3.4% to $235.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 1.9% March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new or...

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2008 Market Outlook: Another Good Year

But get ready for a down cycle as we near the end of the first decade of the new millenium.

When members of the Valve Manufacturers Association gathered in Coronado Beach, CA in August for the association’s Annual Market Outlook Workshop, they listened intently to forecasts from a bakers’ dozen of economists and industry prognosticators. While much of the news was positive—most of the end-user industries served by VMA members appear to be on track for another healthy year—they also heard words of caution. In more than one instance, presenters mentioned the “R” word (recession), giving attendees plenty of food for thought as they plan beyond 2008. Two other themes echoed by speakers? The ever-dwindling workforce and the need to recognize how the North American valve industry is inextricably intertwined with the rest of the world.

 

A Recession is Coming

Alan Beaulieu, economist for the Institute for Trend Research, had some disquieting news for Outlook attendees: This nation will see a recession in the year 2010.

However, he insisted the news was not necessarily all bad.

The good news is, we have a couple more quarters of prosperity,” he said.

Beaulieu said the economy is running just about where he predicted it would go at last year’s workshop, though he’s lowered the figures somewhat for the rest of 2007 and 2008. By 2009, the economy will start to go weak and by 2010, it will take a dip, he said.

“We have no empirical indications yet, but home prices are just the tip of the iceberg,” Beaulieu said. He expects to see oil prices heating up this winter, edging up above $80/barrel in the first half of next year. He also said wage inflation in many sectors has already started.

And he said the Fed will raise rates by 50 to 75 basis points in early 2008, “which doesn’t sound like much,” but, as a nation that carries a lot of debt, the extra $400 a month per household that would result, for instance, could have a chilling effect.

Also, by 2010 there will be a new president who will be facing a number of problems, many of which are tied to the aging Boomer generation. “Whoever is president will be dealing with Social Security, Medicare, drug programs, all of which are budget busters,” he said.

The need to pay for these and other entitlement programs will mean the U.S. will need to borrow money, which puts the country at a global disadvantage, Beaulieu added.

One advantage this nation does have is its demographics, he said. Unlike some countries, “we’re having kids,” at a rate of about 2.1, which is balancing out retirees. In comparison, Russia, where male life expectancy is only 57, is shrinking and will lose 50 million by 2050, “which is the equivalent of the Bubonic Plague,” Beaulieu pointed out. And India, though it will grow almost as much as the U.S., is dealing with a land mass one-third the size.

The U.S. also has industrial advantages. For example, when comparing U.S. Industrial Production to its Gross Domestic Product, “we spend most of our time in a positive track, and we have been for a long time,” Beaulieu said. Currently, goods and services as a percent of GDP is the highest it’s been since World War II.

“We are a profitable nation and prosperous. We are first in technological readiness, quality of research, productivity, profits,” Beaulieu said.

The U.S. is also first in percentage of total world exports of goods and services with Germany, China and then Japan following next. And though many fear China’s growing strength, Beaulieu noted the country has significant demographic problems because of an aging population and restrictions on family size. It also has 125 million more men than women, which raises fears about violence, and significant pollution problems that are killing hundreds of thousands of people.

“China has been on steroids,” Beaulieu said, “but you don’t fix problems like these overnight.”

Beaulieu had these tidbits of advice:

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