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Unique Operating Dynamics of Trunnion-Mounted Ball Valves

Unique Operating Dynamics of Trunnion-Mounted Ball Valves

For a very long time, the idea has exist...

Adopting the IIoT: Are Results Matching the Hype?

Adopting the IIoT: Are Results Matching the Hype?

Many valve, actuator and control manufac...

Where Valves Are Used: Everywhere!

Where Valves Are Used: Everywhere!

Valves can be found just about anywhere ...

Oxygen Cleaning: A Validated Process is Critical for Safety

Oxygen Cleaning: A Validated Process is Critical for Safety

From time to time, we re-publish well-re...

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Industry Headlines

Conference Board Economic Index Rose in October

Tuesday, 21 November 2017  |  Chris Guy

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.2% in October to 130.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in September...

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Industry Headlines

VanAire Celebrates Manufacturing with ‘Industry After Hours’

4 DAYS AGO
VanAire Celebrates Manufacturing with ‘Industry After Hours’

On Nov. 8, Delta County, MI K-12 students and parents attended Industry After Hours at VanAire to learn more about the high tech, high skilled manufacturing jobs that are available. Over 276 participants were treated to a fun, entertaining and informative event that exceeded expectations and inspired ...

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Emerson Opens Solutions Center in Singapore

7 DAYS AGO

As part of its drive to make Singapore a hub for the delivery of Industrial Internet of Things (IoT) technologies and services for customers across Asia Pacific, Emerson opened a customer-focused Solutions Center at the regional headquarters of its Automation Solutions business in Singapore. To mark...

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Nebraska Approves Keystone XL Pipeline Route

4 DAYS AGO

By a vote of 3-2, the Nebraska Public Service Commission approved an order giving TransCanada the go ahead to build the Keystone XL Pipeline utilizing the proposed Mainline Alternative Route. This is one of three proposed routes included in the application filed by TransCanada Keystone Pipeline. L.P...

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Energy Outlook Shows a World in Transformation

10 DAYS AGO

The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017 . A cleaner and more...

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Conference Board Economic Index Rose in October

3 DAYS AGO

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.2% in October to 130.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in September, and a 0.4% increase in August.

“The U.S. LEI increased sharply in October, as the impact of the hurricanes dissipated,” said Ataman Ozyildi...

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U.S. Industrial Output Up 0.9% in October

7 DAYS AGO

Industrial production rose 0.9% in October, and manufacturing increased 1.3%. The index for utilities rose 2.0%, but mining output fell 1.3%, as Hurricane Nate caused a sharp but short-lived decline in oil and gas drilling and extraction. Even so, industrial activity was boosted in October by a return...

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2008 Market Outlook: Another Good Year

But get ready for a down cycle as we near the end of the first decade of the new millenium.

When members of the Valve Manufacturers Association gathered in Coronado Beach, CA in August for the association’s Annual Market Outlook Workshop, they listened intently to forecasts from a bakers’ dozen of economists and industry prognosticators. While much of the news was positive—most of the end-user industries served by VMA members appear to be on track for another healthy year—they also heard words of caution. In more than one instance, presenters mentioned the “R” word (recession), giving attendees plenty of food for thought as they plan beyond 2008. Two other themes echoed by speakers? The ever-dwindling workforce and the need to recognize how the North American valve industry is inextricably intertwined with the rest of the world.

 

A Recession is Coming

Alan Beaulieu, economist for the Institute for Trend Research, had some disquieting news for Outlook attendees: This nation will see a recession in the year 2010.

However, he insisted the news was not necessarily all bad.

The good news is, we have a couple more quarters of prosperity,” he said.

Beaulieu said the economy is running just about where he predicted it would go at last year’s workshop, though he’s lowered the figures somewhat for the rest of 2007 and 2008. By 2009, the economy will start to go weak and by 2010, it will take a dip, he said.

“We have no empirical indications yet, but home prices are just the tip of the iceberg,” Beaulieu said. He expects to see oil prices heating up this winter, edging up above $80/barrel in the first half of next year. He also said wage inflation in many sectors has already started.

And he said the Fed will raise rates by 50 to 75 basis points in early 2008, “which doesn’t sound like much,” but, as a nation that carries a lot of debt, the extra $400 a month per household that would result, for instance, could have a chilling effect.

Also, by 2010 there will be a new president who will be facing a number of problems, many of which are tied to the aging Boomer generation. “Whoever is president will be dealing with Social Security, Medicare, drug programs, all of which are budget busters,” he said.

The need to pay for these and other entitlement programs will mean the U.S. will need to borrow money, which puts the country at a global disadvantage, Beaulieu added.

One advantage this nation does have is its demographics, he said. Unlike some countries, “we’re having kids,” at a rate of about 2.1, which is balancing out retirees. In comparison, Russia, where male life expectancy is only 57, is shrinking and will lose 50 million by 2050, “which is the equivalent of the Bubonic Plague,” Beaulieu pointed out. And India, though it will grow almost as much as the U.S., is dealing with a land mass one-third the size.

The U.S. also has industrial advantages. For example, when comparing U.S. Industrial Production to its Gross Domestic Product, “we spend most of our time in a positive track, and we have been for a long time,” Beaulieu said. Currently, goods and services as a percent of GDP is the highest it’s been since World War II.

“We are a profitable nation and prosperous. We are first in technological readiness, quality of research, productivity, profits,” Beaulieu said.

The U.S. is also first in percentage of total world exports of goods and services with Germany, China and then Japan following next. And though many fear China’s growing strength, Beaulieu noted the country has significant demographic problems because of an aging population and restrictions on family size. It also has 125 million more men than women, which raises fears about violence, and significant pollution problems that are killing hundreds of thousands of people.

“China has been on steroids,” Beaulieu said, “but you don’t fix problems like these overnight.”

Beaulieu had these tidbits of advice:

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