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Industry Headlines

U.S. Economy Grew 0.5% in First Quarter

-1 DAYS AGO  |  Chris Guy

U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis...

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Industry Headlines

MRC Global Announces First Quarter 2016 Results

16 HOURS AGO

MRC Global Inc. today announced first quarter 2016 results. The company's sales were $783 million for the first quarter of 2016, which were 39% lower than the first quarter of 2015 and 19% lower than the fourth quarter of 2015. As compared to last year, reduced customer activity across all segments ...

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CIRCOR Reports First-Quarter 2016 Financial Results

20 HOURS AGO

CIRCOR International announced financial results for the first quarter ended April 3, 2016. In the quarter CIRCOR delivered revenue of $151 million and Adjusted EPS of $0.52.

“CIRCOR delivered solid first-quarter financial results , demonstrating ongoing progress on our margin expansion and simpl...

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Energy Sector Weighs on Construction Starts

4 DAYS AGO

At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $660.5 billion, new construction starts in March receded 1% from February’s pace, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. Total construction starts had jumped 13% in February, led by a huge gain for the electric utility and gas plant category. The dolla...

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Chevron Investing Billions in The Permian Basin

5 DAYS AGO

At Chevron’s annual security analyst meeting last month, chairman and CEO John Watson said that his company plans on investing billions into oil & gas projects in the Permian Basin.

According to the Hobbs News-Sun , Watson predicted they could be pumping up to 350,000 barrels a day out of West ...

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U.S. Economy Grew 0.5% in First Quarter

-1 DAYS AGO

U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumpt...

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ISM: Manufacturing Activity Increased in April

16 HOURS AGO

Manufacturing expanded in April as the PMI registered 50.8%, a decrease of 1% from the March reading of 51.8%, indicating growth in manufacturing for the second consecutive month, following five consecutive months of contraction in manufacturing.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reports that 15...

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Market Outlook 2011: Clear Skies? Wait Until 2012

2011 market outlookMany of the attendees of this year’s Market Outlook, held Aug. 12-13 in San Francisco, came hoping (at last) to hear some good news. The last two years of workshops—put on annually for members by the Valve Manufacturers Association and featuring a dozen economists and industry experts—saw the nation in its worst recession since the depression and most forecasts were pretty bleak.

But probably the most encouraging news to those in attendance is that almost every speaker emphasized they see no double-dip recession in sight.

HIGHLIGHTS AND COMMON THEMES

  • Stimulus packages have helped: Beyond the water/wastewater industry, several other U.S. industries have been helped by federal stimulus, especially those that have to do with building infrastructure. Speakers also pointed out, however, that stimulus packages in other countries have benefited North American industrial manufacturers by creating new markets.
  • Take advantage of low interest rates: Several presenters pointed out that the nation is not likely to see interest rates as low as they were at the time of the fall 2010 workshop anytime soon. While credit is still tight, it’s about to open up, speakers said, so companies should look for ways to take advantage of that situation.
  • Global warming concerns will affect most industries: Almost every speaker this year talked about greenhouse gas and other environmental concerns as well as the possibility of new legislation both at the state and federal levels. From the fact the nuclear industry may benefit because coal is getting a bad reputation, to the effects the Deepwater Horizon disaster will have on drilling, speakers shared new possibilities about what might happen.
  • China has become a better consumer; Brazil a good place to do business: Although it’s still tough to enter the Chinese business world, the country has become a better place to sell for some industries, such as the pulp and paper market, where production of paper goods cannot keep up with Chinese demand. Meanwhile, several speakers talked about developments occurring now in Brazil, including recent discoveries of massive oil deposits in deep-sea, “pre-salt” layers of the earth. Attendees were encouraged to look into finding partners in this business-friendly country.

 

THE DOMESTIC MARKET IS RECOVERING… SLOWLY

Last year, when meeting attendees heard Alan Beaulieu, economist, Institute for Trend Research, speak, “the picture was disturbingly gloomy. But I told you there would be a recovery,” and that recovery has occurred, Beaulieu said. Also: “For those worried about a double-dip recession, relax and take it down a couple notches. Because while there is uncertainty everywhere, there will be no double-dip recession and recovery will be here in 2012,” he said.

However, before meeting attendees could get fully comfortable with that good news, Beaulieu went on to say that the biggest change over last year’s forecast is that “it’s not going to be much more fun” in 2011 than 2010—2011’s move upwards will be milder than originally thought.

The nation’s unemployment rate (which was 9.5% at the time of the outlook workshop) has acted as he predicted last year, which was to stay high, and it may stay that way for awhile, he said.

“You have to look at how many jobs are created in a month. When we get to 200,000 to 300,000 jobs a month, that’s a real recovery,” but at that rate “it will take us three years to create all the jobs we lost, and there is no government initiative out there to help,” he pointed out.

Still, there are many signs that are more positive, Beaulieu said, starting with the lending situation. As far as commercial lending, which is still tight, the competition will begin to heat up soon, and when that happens, standards go down and credit loosens, which “is grease for the economic engine and good things begin to happen.” In the consumer realm, this is already occurring, he pointed out, and commercial is usually right behind.

Regarding inflation, Beaulieu originally predicted it would begin in 2010, but now says “it will hold off until the second half of 2011, but it’s coming.”

Interest rates are at an all-time low, though Beaulieu predicted the trough would be reached soon and then rates will creep upwards until the 2030s, when they may be as high as the Carter years. He advised attendees to “borrow. Invest in anything that will drive your efficiencies and do it in the next six months.”

Meanwhile, manufacturing “is coming back with a vengeance,” he said, pointing to the U.S.’s industrial production figures as well as GDP (gross domestic product) figures that measure rates of change going forward. Both are trending upwards, and demographics for long-term success are favorable in the U.S., he said. For example, the United Nations predicts this nation’s population will grow to 400 million (from 300 million today) by 2050, which compares favorably to places like China, with its birth restrictions and Russia, where the average age is increasing.

Still, Beaulieu had one piece of news that had the audience groaning—he looked down the road 20 years and announced that another great depression is coming—brought on by many factors such as high interest rates, inflation and a government that owes too much. “This won’t be our problem [referring to those at the workshop because of their age], but it will be the problem of the generation behind us,” he said. (Editor’s note: Read our interview with Alan Beaulieu in “Conversation with…” on page 52 of this issue.)

However, he ended by saying that proactive companies, those that look at leading indicators and how their particular companies fit into the current economic picture, will win out over the competition.

“Don’t wait for anyone to make your future. It is up to us to what happens to our world,” he said.

FORECAST: The stock market will return to a bull market going into 2011 and the economy will continue to expand for another six months, but this will not be an easy market in which to make money. Equity will offer a better return than counting on inflation (rising prices). Once inflation hits, lack of spending power may become a problem.

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