In the April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the U.S. will again become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of 2021. Fewer barrels are available for export as U.S. crude oil production continues to decline. In addition, net exports of petroleum products will be lowest in the third quarter of 2020, when U.S. refinery runs decline in response to lower demand for refined products.
It is important to note that the April STEO is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic is dynamic, and the impacts on energy markets continue to evolve. The response has already caused changes in energy fuel supply and demand patterns that are highlighted in the April STEO assumptions.