Latest GDP Report Shows Mixed Messages

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2025. According to the estimate, GDP contracted 0.3% at an annualized rate.

“This was a report full of mixed messages,” said Christopher Chidzik, principal economist of AMT, The Association for Manufacturing Technology. “The headline number was negative, but this was primarily driven by a large increase in imports. Personal consumption expenditures grew by a healthy 1.8%, driven by growth in services and non-durable goods consumption.

“Declining consumption of durable goods is a concerning sign for the manufacturing technology market, as metalworking machinery is more heavily involved in producing these products than nondurable goods. On the other hand, growth in transportation services, which rely heavily on manufactured inputs, grew modestly in the first quarter,” he continued.

“We saw outsized orders for manufacturing technology, measured by the U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders Report, in the first quarter of 2025, and this is reflected in the impressive 22.5% growth for investment in equipment. Many of our members end their fiscal year in March, so we tend to see declines in order activity at the end of Q1 and a decline in April. Depending on the size of that decline, it will tell us how much of this investment was the effect of orders being pulled forward to avoid any anticipated tariff increases.”